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21.04.2025 12:17 PM
EUR/GBP. Analysis and Forecast
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The strengthening of the pair is linked to the euro's rise amid U.S. dollar weakness, driven by concerns over a potential recession in the U.S. and questions about the Federal Reserve's independence.

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Today, the EUR/GBP pair continues to rise, trading above the key 0.8600 level. The pair's upward movement is supported by the euro's growth, which stems from the weakening of the U.S. dollar amid fears of a potential U.S. recession and ongoing debates over the Federal Reserve's independence.

However, the euro is facing certain headwinds following the European Central Bank's seventh consecutive interest rate cut last week. The ECB also warned of the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs on economic growth, fueling expectations for further monetary easing in the coming months.

As ECB policymaker Madis Muller noted, falling energy prices and the impact of tariffs supported the recent rate cuts. He emphasized that monetary policy is no longer a restraining factor but warned of growing economic fragmentation, which could increase price pressures.

The upward potential of the EUR/GBP pair may be limited due to the strengthening of the British pound, which is benefiting from optimism surrounding ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and the U.K. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has expressed his intention to reach an agreement with the U.S., especially after President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on British goods and a 25% tax on car, steel, and aluminum imports.

The first conversation between Starmer and Trump took place on Friday and was reportedly productive according to both sides. A Downing Street official stated that Prime Minister Starmer reaffirmed his commitment to "free and open trade," while emphasizing the importance of safeguarding national interests.

From a technical standpoint, if the pair successfully breaks through the nearest resistance at 0.86174 and consolidates above the key 0.8600 level, it will likely aim for the next target at 0.86960—just below the monthly high.

On the other hand, support at 0.85530 guards against an immediate decline toward 0.85200. That is followed by the round level of 0.8500, below which the bias may shift in favor of the bears.

However, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory, the pair shows no signs of surrendering.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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