empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
23.04.2025 12:35 PM
Market walks through minefield
Open trading account Open demo account

If the market can rally this much on hints from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about de-escalation in the trade conflict with China, imagine how high the S&P 500 could jump if tariffs are actually lowered! Optimists are searching for reasons to buy US stocks, but Wall Street's veterans caution that the bear market is far from over. Beware of "fake outs" in the middle of a long-term downturn! Major players appear to be staying on the sidelines, leading to a 17% drop in trading volumes for the broad market index compared to historical averages.

When the market faces a ceiling of uncertainty from White House import tariffs and a looming US recession, and S&P 500 declines tempt investors to "buy the dip," sharp swings in either direction become a hallmark of the stock market. The trick is to determine when the rally will start to outpace the declines.

S&P 500 volatility during market pullbacks

This image is no longer relevant

This time, the bounce in the broad market index was triggered by conciliatory rhetoric from Donald Trump and his team. The president has said he does not intend to fire Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve chair, only that he wishes Powell were more active in cutting rates. The Republican leader is not looking to be tough on China and believes that 145% tariffs are excessive. In reality, they will be much lower but not zero.

No matter how hard the White House tries to support the S&P 500 with conciliatory language, regaining lost trust is not so simple. Societe Generale points out that for decades, investors had no alternative to American stocks, which led to inflated valuations for both US equities and the dollar. Now, there is an ongoing rotation from US assets into those of other regions, a process that could last for years.

S&P 500 and USD trends

This image is no longer relevant

UBS expects the broad market index to decline in the short term but does not rule out a recovery to 5,500 by year-end if tariffs are significantly reduced.

In my view, the decisive factor will be whether the United States slips into recession or not. The IMF does not see a downturn yet but has raised the probability to 40%. Conversely, the Institute of International Finance forecasts US GDP to contract by 0.8% in the third quarter and 0.3% in the fourth, which would force the Fed to cut the federal funds rate three times by the end of 2025.

This image is no longer relevant

It is clear the White House understands it has gone too far but restoring investor confidence will not be easy.

On the daily chart of the S&P 500, the key question is whether bulls will activate a 1-2-3 reversal pattern. This requires a return to the 5,400 pivot level followed by a successful breakout. A rejection at this level would allow the expansion of previously built short positions. Conversely, a breakout would be grounds to reverse and take long positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Forecast
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on June 30 Demand for Risk Assets Declined After the Release of U.S. Data— But It Remains a Correction, Not a Dollar Comeback According to the data, the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures
Miroslaw Bawulski
07:37 2025-06-30 +02:00
1015
Trading plan
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on June 30: Cold North is Better Than the Warm South On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair saw only a slight correction after its strong rally. Once again, we observe a market with no apparent desire to take profits from long
Paolo Greco
07:07 2025-06-30 +02:00
1045
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

What to Pay Attention to on June 30? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Perhaps the most important is the final Q1 GDP report in the United Kingdom. Let us recall that the British
Paolo Greco 06:02 2025-06-30 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 30: Nonfarm Payrolls, Powell, and Unemployment

The GBP/USD currency pair rose by 300 pips over the past week and appears to be in no hurry to stop. Even on Friday, the price failed to initiate
Paolo Greco 03:37 2025-06-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 30: European Inflation and Another Round of Lagarde Speeches

The EUR/USD currency pair has been rising for five consecutive months. During this time, we've only seen a few minor downward corrections, each ending in another collapse of the U.S
Paolo Greco 03:37 2025-06-30 UTC+2

U.S. Dollar – Weekly Preview

The American news background will once again play a key role for the dollar and, therefore, for the market and the vast majority of instruments. This past week, only
Chin Zhao 00:34 2025-06-30 UTC+2

British Pound – Weekly Preview

The situation for the British pound in the market and news landscape is quite similar. For the pound, two rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2025 or zero
Chin Zhao 00:34 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Euro Currency – Weekly Preview

In the upcoming week, the euro is expected to maintain demand in the market. Currently, all events are aligning in its favor. I previously wrote that only the wave structure
Chin Zhao 00:33 2025-06-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD – Weekly Preview: ISM Indexes, Nonfarm Payrolls, Eurozone Inflation, and "One Big Beautiful Bill"

The upcoming week promises to be both interesting and informative while also being volatile. The economic calendar is packed with major releases that could trigger heightened volatility in the EUR/USD
Irina Manzenko 00:33 2025-06-30 UTC+2

The Yen Has Lost Its Bullish Momentum

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Tokyo region declined in June from 3.4% to 3.1% year-over-year, marking the first signal so far that may indicate a slowdown in price
Kuvat Raharjo 12:21 2025-06-27 UTC+2

EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/JPY pair is regaining positive momentum during today's trading session, reversing its recent decline.The euro continues to benefit from the prevailing sentiment of selling the U.S. dollar
Irina Yanina 12:17 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Inflation in Canada Remains Too High – USD/CAD May Accelerate Its Decline

Inflation in Canada remains too high to expect a rate cut by the Bank of Canada at its upcoming meeting. In April, inflation sharply slowed to 1.7% y/y, and most
Kuvat Raharjo 11:16 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 19:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD Overview – June 30: European Inflation and Another Round of Lagarde Speeches
03:37 2025-06-30
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD Forecast for June 30, 2025
05:49 2025-06-30
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 19:00 UTC--5
GBP/USD Overview – June 30: Nonfarm Payrolls, Powell, and Unemployment
03:37 2025-06-30
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 UTC--5
How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on June 30? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners
06:02 2025-06-30
Trading plan
Relevance up to 22:00 UTC--5
AUD/USD Forecast for June 30, 2025
05:45 2025-06-30
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.