empty
24.04.2025 09:38 AM
The Markets Have Likely Already Passed the Bottom of Their Decline (there is a chance of continued decline in EUR/USD and GBP/USD)

While markets remain focused on trade wars, particularly between the U.S. and China, incoming economic data indicate persistent structural problems in the advanced economies of Europe and the United States.

Markets enthusiastically reacted with a two-day rally following comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who expressed hope for easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing and assurances from Donald Trump that he had no plans to remove Jerome Powell from his post as Federal Reserve Chair. Now, all attention is shifting to key economic reports, which are pointing to a further plunge of the European economy into a state of depression and local challenges in the U.S.

Starting with Europe, the PMI reports for manufacturing and services in leading eurozone countries—France and Germany—as well as the composite reading for the eurozone all signal a continued slowdown. This confirms the entrenched negative trend for continental Europe, which can no longer be described merely as a "recession" but as a full-fledged depression. European elites are attempting to counter this through a strategy of military-industrial mobilization.

Even though the United Kingdom is outside the EU, it is also experiencing serious economic difficulties, as recent PMI data confirm.

What about the U.S.?

The situation there has improved somewhat. The Services PMI for April declined to 51.4 from 54.4 (the forecast was 52.8). While this is a slowdown, it's not yet catastrophic—the indicator remains above the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. In manufacturing, the PMI rose slightly to 50.7 from 50.2, avoiding the expected drop to 49.0.

The U.S. housing market also remains relatively stable. New home sales in March increased to 724,000 compared to 674,000 previously, beating the forecast of 684,000.

Overall, the data from Europe and the U.S. show a relatively stronger position for the American economy. However, it's worth noting that the reports still don't fully reflect the impact of Trump's tariff wars, especially against China.

While investors try to focus on macroeconomic indicators, trade tensions remain the central narrative and will continue to dominate investor decision-making.

Looking at the broader picture of U.S.-China rivalry, it seems likely that the world's two largest economies will eventually have to compromise. Unless something extreme happens—like another unexpected move by Trump to pressure China with new sanctions—markets may already have passed their bottom and could begin to recover.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Forecast of the Day:

EUR/USD

The pair has recently surged on the back of dollar weakness, fueled by recession fears and speculation about Powell's potential removal. However, if the dollar stabilizes and the interest rate spread between the ECB and the Fed shifts against the euro, a renewed decline in EUR/USD is possible. A drop below 1.1310 would open the way toward 1.1200. A suitable sell level could be around 1.1295.

GBP/USD

The situation is similar to EUR/USD. The pound has mirrored the euro's movement. A decline below 1.3245 could push the pair toward 1.3140. A suitable sell level could be around 1.3230.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD Overview – June 23: Geopolitics vs. Economy

The GBP/USD currency pair traded sluggishly throughout Friday, but one technical factor is worth noting: the price failed to consolidate above the moving average. Thus, technical analysis currently suggests

Paolo Greco 03:50 2025-06-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 23: The U.S. Has Officially Entered the War Against Iran

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility and no clear direction throughout Friday. The upward trend remains intact without any doubt. However, a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar

Paolo Greco 03:50 2025-06-23 UTC+2

US-EU Negotiations on the Verge of Collapse

As anticipated, this phrase can describe nearly every action taken by Donald Trump. I have consistently argued that the core of any negotiations involving Trump comes down to this

Chin Zhao 00:13 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Iran Preparing a "Long-Term Response" to the US

Only a few hours have passed since the overnight airstrike by American bombers on Iranian nuclear facilities—and already, missiles are flying in the opposite direction. However, they are not targeting

Chin Zhao 00:13 2025-06-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Prepare for Price Turbulence

The economic calendar for the upcoming week is packed with important releases and events. However, all of them will be overshadowed by geopolitical developments—or rather, one specific event that took

Irina Manzenko 00:13 2025-06-23 UTC+2

U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview

The United States brings many important economic events. Additionally, as I have mentioned several times, the ongoing war in the Middle East could greatly influence market sentiment. As a result

Chin Zhao 00:12 2025-06-23 UTC+2

British Pound: Weekly Preview

The dynamics of the British pound will also not be driven by the pound itself or domestic UK news. The reasons are the same: the U.S. involvement in the Middle

Chin Zhao 00:12 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Euro: Preview of the Week

Few genuinely believe that economic news will overshadow other developments in the coming week. These "other developments" are of global significance. Over the weekend, the United States launched a strike

Chin Zhao 00:12 2025-06-23 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/JPY pair is regaining positive momentum after a modest pullback the previous day. However, spot prices remain confined within a multi-day range due to mixed fundamental signals, trading near

Irina Yanina 14:39 2025-06-20 UTC+2

USD/CHF: The Pair Struggles to Gain Momentum Amid Conflicting Forces

At present, USD/CHF shows no clear intraday direction and fluctuates within a narrow range just above the 0.8155 level, reflecting market uncertainty during the European session. The Swiss franc

Irina Yanina 14:36 2025-06-20 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.