empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
23.08.2023 07:23 PM
The euro is sinking non-stop
Open trading account Open demo account

The Eurozone economy has long appeared to be gasping for breath. Its 0.3% growth in the second quarter was driven by successes in Ireland, where international companies are headquartered due to the country's low tax rates. And now, another blow: in August, business activity in the services sector fell below the critical mark of 50 for the first time since the end of 2022. As a result, there's talk in the market of a 0.2% GDP decline in the third quarter, and EUR/USD nearly hit a target of 1.08 based on previously established shorts.

The main culprits for the fall of the Eurozone's composite PMI to 47 were Germany and France. German purchasing managers' indices fell at the fastest pace since the first wave of the pandemic led to an economic shutdown and lockdowns in 2020. Paris reported a third consecutive decline in business activity in the country's manufacturing sector.

Eurozone Business Activity Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

The grim prospects for the region's economy are compounded by strikes at LNG production facilities in Australia, which threaten to drive up gas prices and revive fears of another energy crisis. At the same time, arguments from ECB centrists in favor of maintaining the deposit rate at the current 3.75% in September are growing. The futures market, following PMI data, lowered its peak expectations, putting pressure on EUR/USD.

In the U.S., on the other hand, the risks of resuming the monetary tightening cycle are growing. Derivatives have increased the likelihood of borrowing costs rising to 5.75% or higher by the end of the year to 39%. The rapid rally in Treasury bond yields to the highest levels in over a decade is pushing the Federal Reserve to take decisive action, even against the backdrop of a significant inflation slowdown.

ECB Deposit Rate Expectation Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

Investors are waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to indicate that all options remain open for the Federal Reserve. Whether it's a prolonged hold of the federal funds rate at 5.5% or an increase by another 25 basis points. As a result, the divergence in monetary policy is favoring the "bears" for EUR/USD, as is the difference in economic growth between the U.S. and the Eurozone. Is it any surprise that the main currency pair is plummeting?

This image is no longer relevant

What's next? The demand for the dollar is supported by the strength of the economy and rising Treasury yields. Of course, one might assume that U.S. macro statistics will soon begin to deteriorate, and debt problems will prompt investors to flee to bonds. But when exactly will this happen? Some believe that only one or two acts of monetary tightening have negatively impacted the U.S. economy. Before that, the Fed was simply returning rates to a normal state.

The technical pullback of EUR/USD, provoked by the 'Three Indians' pattern, is gaining momentum. The break of the trendline and the bulls' inability to move above it indicate that a trend breakdown is imminent. A successful test of support at 1.08 will catalyze a further plunge towards 1.066 and 1.052. The recommendation is to sell.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
Trade Negotiations Between China and the U.S. Are Ongoing. Markets Await Results (There Is a Risk of Local Declines in EUR/USD and GBP/USD Pairs) Markets have once again paused amid uncertainty over whether a trade agreement between the U.S. and China will be reached anytime soon. The cloud of uncertainty that Donald Trump
Pati Gani
10:04 2025-04-29 +02:00
1075
Fundamental analysis
The Market Has Licked Its Wounds The market always keeps us engaged. Despite all the gloomy talk of recession, trade wars, supply shortages, inflation, and layoffs, the S&P 500 has declined by just a little over
Marek Petkovich
09:10 2025-04-29 +02:00
1105
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trade Negotiations Between China and the U.S. Are Ongoing. Markets Await Results (There Is a Risk of Local Declines in EUR/USD and GBP/USD Pairs)

Markets have once again paused amid uncertainty over whether a trade agreement between the U.S. and China will be reached anytime soon. The cloud of uncertainty that Donald Trump
Pati Gani 10:04 2025-04-29 UTC+2

The Market Has Licked Its Wounds

The market always keeps us engaged. Despite all the gloomy talk of recession, trade wars, supply shortages, inflation, and layoffs, the S&P 500 has declined by just a little over
Marek Petkovich 09:10 2025-04-29 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 29? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Tuesday, and none are significant. If we set aside all the tertiary reports, such as the GfK Consumer Confidence Index in Germany
Paolo Greco 07:00 2025-04-29 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 29: Are Labor Market and Unemployment Data Important?

On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair also traded with low volatility and mainly moved sideways, although the British pound maintained a slight upward bias. Despite the lack of market-relevant news
Paolo Greco 04:33 2025-04-29 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 29: The Weak Yield, the Strong Resist

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair remained immobilized. There were no updates over the weekend from Donald Trump regarding trade developments, and no important data or events were scheduled
Paolo Greco 04:33 2025-04-29 UTC+2

The Euro Looks for a Basis for Another Upward Surge

Business activity indices in the eurozone are declining amid heightened uncertainty. The composite index in April fell from 50.9 to 50.1, nearing contraction territory. At the same time, Germany's
Kuvat Raharjo 00:54 2025-04-29 UTC+2

The Dollar Continues to Sell Off, Outlook Remains Weak

As shown by the latest CFTC report, U.S. dollar futures indicate a further deterioration in its outlook. During the reporting week, the net short position on the USD increased
Kuvat Raharjo 00:54 2025-04-29 UTC+2

Bitcoin Can't Lose

There's never a dull moment with Bitcoin. Sometimes it behaves like a risky asset, sometimes like a safe haven. At the beginning of April, the cryptocurrency was jokingly referred
Marek Petkovich 19:03 2025-04-28 UTC+2

The Market Has Outplayed the Professionals

"Follow the smart money" — this classic principle of technical analysis suggests it's safer to side with professionals rather than the crowd. However, in 2025, such an approach would have
Marek Petkovich 19:00 2025-04-28 UTC+2

USD fails to be resilient

Is the US dollar overvalued? Bank of America thinks so. The bank points out that in previous cycles, when the USD Index peaked in the mid-1980s and early 2000s
Marek Petkovich 16:23 2025-04-28 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 22:00 2025-04-29 UTC--4
EUR/USD Overview – April 29: The Weak Yield, the Strong Resist
04:33 2025-04-29
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-04-30 UTC--4
How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on April 29? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners
06:43 2025-04-29
Trading plan
Relevance up to 22:00 2025-04-29 UTC--4
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on April 29: Euro Growth Did Not Affect the Flat Trend
04:32 2025-04-29
Trading plan
Relevance up to 22:00 2025-04-29 UTC--4
GBP/USD Overview – April 29: Are Labor Market and Unemployment Data Important?
04:33 2025-04-29
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-04-30 UTC--4
What to Pay Attention to on April 29? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
07:00 2025-04-29
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.