empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
18.03.2025 10:47 AM
BTC/USD Analysis – March 18th: Bitcoin Prepares for Growth, but the Risk of Collapse Remains
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

The 4-hour wave structure for BTC/USD appears clear and well-defined. After completing a five-wave bullish trend, a bearish phase began, which currently resembles a corrective pattern. Based on this, I do not expect Bitcoin to surpass $110,000 - $115,000 in the coming months.

Bitcoin's uptrend was supported by a steady flow of positive news regarding institutional investments, government purchases, and pension fund allocations. However, Trump's policies have driven investors out of the market, and no trend can remain bullish indefinitely.

The wave that started on January 20 does not resemble an impulse wave, suggesting we are dealing with a complex corrective structure that could last for months. The internal structure of this first wave is intricate, but I can identify a five-wave a-b-c-d-e pattern within it.

If the current wave analysis is correct, Bitcoin is now forming a corrective bullish wave, which, based on classical Elliott Wave theory, should consist of three waves.

BTC/USD has managed to halt its decline, and the current wave structure suggests a potential rise. However, this conclusion is based purely on technical wave analysis, as the fundamental backdrop remains bearish for Bitcoin, stocks, and other risk assets.

That said, it's crucial to remember that wave analysis does not control markets—it only highlights the most probable scenarios.

The price action over the past few days indicates a lack of buyers, which is another bearish signal. Additionally, the downward wave structure could evolve into an even more complex, extended pattern, surpassing the initial a-b-c-d-e formation.

Currently, Bitcoin appears to be slipping back toward the low of wave e, which leads me to believe that a three-wave correction may not materialize, and the downtrend could resume sooner than expected.

Analyzing the fundamental backdrop won't take much time—there are no major bullish developments that could justify a strong price surge.

Instead, we see a clear pattern. Since Donald Trump became U.S. president, Bitcoin has consistently lost value. This remains the primary bearish factor, and I expect it to continue pushing market participants toward selling Bitcoin.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on my BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that Bitcoin's current growth phase is over. Everything suggests that we are in the early stages of a complex, multi-month correction.

I have not recommended buying Bitcoin before, and I certainly do not recommend it now.

A drop below the low of wave 4 would confirm that Bitcoin is entering a full-fledged bearish trend, likely of a corrective nature.

Therefore, I consider the best approach to be searching for short-selling opportunities. If a bullish correction occurs, I will look for selling opportunities with targets around $68,000 and lower.

On higher timeframes, Bitcoin has completed a five-wave bullish cycle and is now in the early stages of a corrective or full-scale bearish trend.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often change unexpectedly.
  2. If there is uncertainty in the market, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Analytical News
US Market News Digest for April 29 The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to climb, maintaining their upward momentum despite mixed performances across other sectors. Softer rhetoric from the Trump administration and expectations of further tariff relief
Ekaterina Kiseleva
11:59 2025-04-29 +02:00
1150
Crypto-currencies
BTC/USD Analysis on April 29, 2025 The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of the BTC/USD has become somewhat more complex. We observed a corrective downward structure that completed its formation around the $75,000 mark. After
Chin Zhao
11:30 2025-04-29 +02:00
1210
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

BTC/USD Analysis on April 29, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of the BTC/USD has become somewhat more complex. We observed a corrective downward structure that completed its formation around the $75,000 mark. After
Chin Zhao 11:30 2025-04-29 UTC+2

$200,000 for Bitcoin by Year-End

While Bitcoin is still struggling to break through the $95,000 level — despite all the conditions being in place — Standard Chartered believes that in the second quarter, the leading
Jakub Novak 11:09 2025-04-29 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on April 29

Bitcoin and Ethereum Buyers Are Trying to Control the Market — and So Far, They're Doing Quite Well However, it's important to note that the longer we remain below $95,000
Miroslaw Bawulski 08:51 2025-04-29 UTC+2

Bitcoin at the Start of a New Rally: When to Expect $120,000 and Beyond

After a week full of turbulence, the cryptocurrency market seems to have taken a deep breath. The Fear and Greed Index has been recorded at 51 — a rare neutral
Ekaterina Kiseleva 01:15 2025-04-29 UTC+2

XRP futures to launch on May 19

Over the weekend, Bitcoin experienced a brief dip but soon returned to the $94,000 level. Ether also faced some pressure, but managed to hold its ground. Surprisingly, XRP saw only
Jakub Novak 16:14 2025-04-28 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on April 28

Bitcoin is being pressured, but it still holds up quite confidently. After rebounding from the $92,000 mark, the first cryptocurrency returned to the $94,000 area, maintaining good growth prospects
Miroslaw Bawulski 08:19 2025-04-28 UTC+2

Bitcoin – Technical Situation Analysis

Currently, bullish players are attempting to change the situation and achieve bullish optimism for April. Last week, resistance at the final level of the weekly Ichimoku cross (93344) was tested
Evangelos Poulakis 03:51 2025-04-28 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on April 25

Yesterday's unsuccessful attempt to stay above $94,000 demonstrates that there is still significant buying interest. Ethereum is also holding up quite well, although yesterday's correction during the European session likely
Miroslaw Bawulski 08:56 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Polkadot Cryptocurrency, Friday April 25, 2025.

With the condition of the Stochastic Oscillator indicator which is already above the Overbought level (80) even though it is currently still moving above the WMA (30 Shift 2) which
Arief Makmur 07:02 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Solana Cryptocurrency, Friday April 25, 2025.

Although currently the Solana cryptocurrency is moving in a strengthening condition which is indicated by its price movement moving above the WMA (30 Shift 2) but with the appearance
Arief Makmur 07:02 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 22:00 2025-04-29 UTC--4
EUR/USD Overview – April 29: The Weak Yield, the Strong Resist
04:33 2025-04-29
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-04-30 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 29. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:22 2025-04-29
Forecast
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-04-30 UTC--4
How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on April 29? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners
06:43 2025-04-29
Trading plan
Relevance up to 03:00 UTC--4
Trade Negotiations Between China and the U.S. Are Ongoing. Markets Await Results (There Is a Risk of Local Declines in EUR/USD and GBP/USD Pairs)
10:04 2025-04-29
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-04-30 UTC--4
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on April 29
07:18 2025-04-29
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.