Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0317 level in the second half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had significantly risen above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I chose not to buy the euro, and no other entry points presented themselves.

Yesterday, comments from Federal Reserve officials supported demand for the U.S. dollar. Michelle Bowman stated that inflation remains high and sees risks of its resurgence. She believes that December's rate cut should be the last until the situation with rising prices stabilizes. Patrick Harker also noted that it will take longer than expected to bring inflation down to 2% and suggested that the Fed should consider taking a small pause amid the current uncertainty.

This morning, there is no significant data from the Eurozone, but figures regarding changes in France's consumer spending, industrial production, and Italy's retail sales should not be overlooked. Only very weak data could trigger a sell-off for the euro ahead of the U.S. labor market reports.

For today's intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro at around 1.0298 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0322. At 1.0322, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 pips from the entry point. A bullish scenario for the euro is only plausible in the first half of the day if positive data is released. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0278 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect a rise to the 1.0298 and 1.0322 levels.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell the euro after reaching the 1.0278 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0253, where I plan to exit the market and buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair can resume at any moment. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0298 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expect a decline to the 1.0278 and 1.0253 levels.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.