The prevailing negative market sentiment continues to weigh heavily on both the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market, which saw significant declines following the opening of futures trading on Monday. Talks of Donald Trump potentially imposing tariffs on Colombia, Mexico, Canada, and China as early as February 1 are further exacerbating the challenges faced by buyers of risk assets.

Many investors, gripped by panic, are offloading their assets in anticipation of further losses. Bitcoin and other altcoins are rapidly losing ground, leading to a drop in the overall market capitalization of the crypto sector. Large-scale investor distrust signals a need to reassess strategies, which may prolong the recovery period. Meanwhile, the stock market is trading with high volatility.

As noted earlier, Wall Street indices are falling under the pressure of negative news surrounding potential trade wars. Experts predict that this uncertainty could persist for several weeks until the administration clarifies its stance on foreign economic initiatives.

ETF trends: investor interest persists despite challenges

Over the past trading week, investors have revealed steady interest in spot ETFs. Despite a slight decline in net inflows into BTC-ETFs, the numbers remain impressive, reflecting strong investor confidence in Bitcoin's potential. A net inflow of +$1.7577 billion highlights a stable base of active market participants looking for opportunities to increase their investments.

As for spot ETH-ETFs, a net inflow of +$139.4 million is another positive signal, following recent outflows. This indicates that Ethereum is gradually regaining its appeal among investors despite short-term market fluctuations. Confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem is growing, and many experts believe this is just the beginning of a new phase of growth. The crypto market, as a whole, demonstrates resilience and adaptability to external factors, with investors actively forming strategies based on current conditions.

Bitcoin halving cycle: limited supply and growing demand

The liquid supply of BTC held by long-term holders (5–7 years) continues to decline rapidly, mirroring the bull cycle of 2016–2018. Low supply and high demand could support the market during the current downturn. Some experts argue that the ongoing BTC halving cycle is not yet fully factored into the market, creating a supply shock.

Many crypto enthusiasts set a price target of $200,000 for Bitcoin in this bull cycle, suggesting optimism is far from fading. The halving cycle, which reduces BTC mining rewards, not only reduces its availability but also arouses interest from new investors. This supply shock fosters a positive outlook for Bitcoin's future price trajectory. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and ability to break records, the target of $200,000 could become a reality. As interest in cryptocurrency grows, maintaining confidence in Bitcoin's upward momentum is crucial.

Bitcoin technical outlook

From a technical viewpoint, buyers are currently aiming to reclaim the $99,500 level, which would pave the way to $100,900, with $102,900 just within reach. The ultimate target lies at the $104,400 area, breaking which could signal a return to a medium-term bull market. In case of a correction, buyers are expected to step in at $97,900. A drop below this level could quickly pull BTC towards $96,400, with the next support at $95,000 and an ultimate low near $93,200.

Ethereum technical outlook

For Ethereum, a confirmed break above $3,123 opens a direct path to $3,196, with $3,264 not far behind. The ultimate target is the yearly high around $3,314, surpassing which would mark a return to a medium-term bull market. In case of a correction, buyers are anticipated around $3,050. A decline below this level could push ETH towards $2,997, with further support at $2,944 and an ultimate target near $2,889.