empty
23.04.2025 12:09 AM
Oil is falling, Trump is angry, Powell is silent – who will blink first?

This image is no longer relevant

Oil and gas continue to play by the rules of big politics. Every Trump statement, every Federal Reserve decision, and every new move from China is like a new card in a complex energy game. On Tuesday, markets were not just waiting for the API report – they're waiting for confirmation that the world isn't sliding into a new phase of global confrontation. This means any data will be interpreted through fear and hope.

Brent rebounded from support around $66, but it looks more like a pause than a bull victory. The American stock arena is burning with nervousness: trade tensions with China have resurfaced, and Donald Trump, the consummate showman, is attacking the Fed and Jerome Powell personally.

His statement that the U.S. economy could slow without rate cuts sounded like public pressure on the central bank. The mere possibility of Powell's removal from office has shaken even the calmest investors.

Any slowdown in the U.S. is automatically negative for oil prices. Given that oil is a commodity of energy and sentiment, its vulnerability to sharp swings in the stock market is especially pronounced.

And here comes China. A new round of tariff measures has even hit tankers: Chinese-made and -operated supertankers will now face additional levies when entering U.S. ports. This isn't just administrative – it's a logistical blow that could echo across the global energy market.

Meanwhile, the Asian giant is hitting back. Chinese energy company CNOOC has signed a five-year LNG supply contract with ADNOC, sending a message: if the U.S. doesn't want to sell, there are other suppliers.

In parallel, Saudi Aramco has partnered with EV maker BYD, which is a clear nod toward the future as the oil monarchy adapts to the global "green transition."

Changes are also occurring on the Indian front: OPEC's share of Indian oil imports has dropped to a two-year low. The direct cause is more affordable Russian oil, which India continues to buy in large volumes.

The API report on U.S. stockpiles is to be released on Tuesday. A Reuters poll suggests a drawdown in crude and gasoline stocks, with a rise in distillates. The market awaits confirmation, as even a hint of a deficit could bring the bulls back into play.

Brent Technical Analysis

Brent is trying to consolidate above a local descending resistance – a positive technical signal. If this holds, the next challenge will be the $68.5–68.9 zone – a strong cluster that has repeatedly capped price growth.

This image is no longer relevant

However, risks remain. If the market fails to hold above $66, the next support is around $63–63.7. This is the lower boundary of a critical range, and a break below it could trigger a cascading sell-off – especially amid today's tense global agenda.

Natural Gas

Gas has entered a critical zone. The $3–3.159 range serves as support and a potential "launchpad" for an upward correction. The RSI on the 4-hour chart shows oversold conditions, suggesting a favorable moment for a technical rebound.

However, gas bulls remain silent: the asset lost its nearest uptrend last week. This opens the door to further downside toward the next long-term trend. While a local bounce is likely, the structure still leans bearish.

Key resistance levels on the way up: the local descending trendline and a previously broken support level.

Natalya Andreeva,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – June 24th (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Guidance for the Japanese Yen A price test at 144.97 occurred while the MACD was already far above the zero line, which prevented Scenario #1 (selling

Jakub Novak 18:45 2025-06-24 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – June 24th (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Guidance for the British Pound A price test at 1.3608 in the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator having already moved significantly above

Jakub Novak 18:42 2025-06-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – June 24th (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Guidance for the Euro A price test at 1.1597 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero line, which enabled a short-selling

Jakub Novak 18:39 2025-06-24 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 24. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

The price test at 147.72 coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar and resulting

Jakub Novak 09:07 2025-06-24 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 24. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

The price test at 1.3393 coincided with when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound

Jakub Novak 09:07 2025-06-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 24. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

The price test at 1.1483 aligned with the MACD indicator's upward movement from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair

Jakub Novak 09:07 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on June 24

This morning, the euro may continue its upward movement, but solid data must be released for that to happen. Expected releases include the German IFO Business Climate Index, the Current

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:44 2025-06-24 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders for June 23rd (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of the 147.48 level occurred when the MACD indicator was in the overbought zone, which prevented scenario #1

Jakub Novak 18:18 2025-06-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders for June 23rd (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound The price test at 1.3420 in the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move

Jakub Novak 18:14 2025-06-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders for June 23rd (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro The price test at 1.1499 coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to move downward from the zero mark, which allowed

Jakub Novak 18:10 2025-06-23 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.