empty
23.04.2025 12:08 AM
The Dollar Has Been Replaced. Nature Abhors a Vacuum

Fear paralyzes, but action persists. Investors are slowly overcoming their concerns over Donald Trump's attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve and are starting to lock in profits on long EUR/USD positions amid the IMF's downbeat forecasts. Yes, the U.S. dollar is no longer viewed as a safe-haven asset, but the euro remains a pro-cyclical currency—its value is tied to the state of the global economy, which doesn't look particularly bright in the near term.

The IMF has cut its forecast for global GDP from 3.3% to 2.8% for 2025 and from 3.3% to 2.9% for 2026 due to the White House's tariff policy. China's economy is expected to slow to 4% this year and next, down by 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points from previous estimates. The U.S. will fall short by 0.9 and 0.7 percentage points, with GDP projected to grow by 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively. These are the consequences of a trade war between global heavyweights—and that's not even factoring in Washington's tariff hikes to 145% and Beijing's to 125%.

Import Tariff Trends

This image is no longer relevant

Investors are beginning to realize that the U.S., where exports account for only 11% of GDP, may suffer less than Germany and the eurozone, where export shares hover around 40%. However, this fact alone is insufficient to halt the ongoing capital flight from North America to Europe.

For a long time, U.S.-issued securities were the default investment choice. American exceptionalism attracted foreign buyers and strengthened the dollar, causing U.S. equity valuations to become significantly inflated. The growing distrust in the White House's policies has pushed foreign investors to flee the U.S. like rats from a sinking ship.

Valuation Trends: U.S. vs European Stock Indices

This image is no longer relevant

The dollar and U.S. Treasuries are no longer the safe-haven assets they were for decades. Investors have found alternatives in gold, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and German government bonds. This shift is one of the key drivers behind the 7% decline in the USD index since the start of the year. How long could this trend last?

This image is no longer relevant

In my opinion, Trump's policy is fundamentally flawed. In trying to reduce the U.S. current account deficit, he is cutting off the export revenues of other countries—revenues that were historically reinvested into the U.S. via securities purchases. As a result, foreign investors have accumulated $19 trillion in U.S. equities and $7 trillion in Treasuries. They also hold 20–30% of the U.S. corporate bond market. These assets are now being dumped, fueling the upward trend in EUR/USD.

Technically, the daily chart of the EUR/USD pair shows a pullback as speculators take profit on long positions. A rebound from support levels at the pivot point (1.1425) and fair value (1.1380) should be seen as an opportunity to build new long positions on EUR/USD.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

O dólar se estabilizou, mas isso não vai durar muito

The latest CFTC report indicates that the sell-off of the U.S. dollar has either ended or is close to ending. The net short position against major currencies decreased by $1.094

Kuvat Raharjo 18:54 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Os mercados esperam um avanço nas negociações comerciais entre os EUA e a China (o ouro e o GBP/USD podem continuar caindo)

Os mercados praticamente pararam, à espera do desfecho das negociações comerciais entre representantes da China e dos Estados Unidos. Até o momento, não houve avanços, o que tem gerado ansiedade

Pati Gani 18:24 2025-06-10 UTC+2

A ausência de notícias já é uma boa notícia

As negociações comerciais entre os Estados Unidos e a China devem continuar pelo segundo dia, já que os dois lados pretendem aliviar as tensões relacionadas às exportações de tecnologia

Jakub Novak 18:07 2025-06-10 UTC+2

O BCE está pronto para esperar

O euro e a libra permanecem em uma faixa de variação em relação ao dólar americano, sofrendo alguma pressão após o primeiro dia de negociações entre a China

Jakub Novak 17:35 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Novas estrelas brilham no mercado

Nada é eterno. Enquanto os mercados avançam gradualmente, os investidores acompanham de perto a disputa entre as empresas mais valiosas do mundo. NVIDIA e Microsoft se revezam na liderança, enquanto

Marek Petkovich 16:56 2025-06-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par EUR/USD está sob pressão, não tendo conseguido consolidar-se acima do nível 1,1435 e apresentando quedas intradiárias em direção ao nível psicológico de 1,1400 e abaixo, em meio

Irina Yanina 14:22 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Dólar americano: Previsão semanal

Nos Estados Unidos, como de costume, haverá eventos e notícias muito mais relevantes do que na zona do euro ou no Reino Unido. Os dados econômicos começam a ser divulgados

Chin Zhao 17:18 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Libra Britânica: Prévia semanal

No Reino Unido, o calendário de notícias da próxima semana será bem mais interessante, embora eu não acredite que isso vá impactar significativamente o sentimento do mercado. A libra continua

Chin Zhao 17:18 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Euro: prévia semanal

Tédio — puro e simples. É assim que a próxima semana se desenha para a moeda europeia. Desde já, é importante esclarecer que esta análise se concentra apenas no histórico

Chin Zhao 17:09 2025-06-09 UTC+2

O Bitcoin entra em conflito

A maior surpresa de junho foi a divergência entre os índices de ações dos EUA e as criptomoedas. O S&P 500 e o Bitcoin são normalmente considerados ativos de risco

Marek Petkovich 17:04 2025-06-09 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.